Syria Today | Mediation of Convenience

Iraq has offered to mediate between Syria and the Arab League. What are the implications of this initiative?

By Alma Hassoun
Photo Adel Samara

When the Arab League (AL) moved to condemn the government's handling of anti-regime protests in November last year, Iraq took a backseat. It abstained from voting on AL decisions to suspend Syria's participation in the organisation and impose economic sanctions, and even put itself forward as a would-be mediator between the hostile Arab countries and the beleaguered Syrian regime.

The Iraqi initiative followed the league's plan that was meant to stop violence in Syria. However, while the success of the Arab initiative has been widely questioned, no official details about how to execute the blurred Iraqi endeavour have yet been announced by the Iraqi side since it was proposed two months ago. According to reports in the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar on December 14, "reliable Iraqi" sources said their own initiative to end the crisis in Syria involves freezing the AL's decision to impose economic sanctions, stopping the security solution against protestors, restarting Syria's internal dialogue with opposition figures, and mediating talks between Syria and other AL members. Iraqi daily Assabah also quoted an "informed Arab source" as saying on December 18 that the initiative includes holding presidential and parliamentary elections under Arab supervision. No timeframe was provided.

Hushiar Zebari, Iraq's foreign minister, told Lebanese daily Assafir on December 24 that Iraqi mediation is the only way to make the Arab initiative succeed and that if it failed, the only alternative would be internationalisation of the Syrian crisis.

Iraq has obvious incentives for helping Syria out. Trade is growing between the two countries. Both share a common powerful regional ally in Iran. And not least, the two countries share a roughly 600-km-long border, which has long been a source of mutual fear. However, it is now the Iraqis in particular who may be keen to limit the overspill from the Arab Spring.

Nevertheless, few believe that Iraqi efforts to bring an end to the Syrian crisis could be successful.

Throwing its weight around
Hussein al-Odat, a Syrian journalist, writer, and member of the opposition National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change (NCC), which met the Iraqi delegation, says Iraqi attempts to intervene in the crisis are little more than an attempt to boost their profile in the region, and will do little to help.

"It is not an initiative; it is just an attempt to announce that Iraq returned to the political arena," he told Syria Today. "Iraq has no power outside its borders [and] the Iraqi government has announced more than once that it supports the Syrian authority, so how can it propose solutions [to mediate] between the authority and the opposition?"

Samir Nashar, a member of the Syrian National Council (SNC), another opposition group, told the BBC on December 10 that the Iraqi initiative is "a second opportunity for the Syrian regime to commit more crimes".

However, Syrian daily Al-Watan, which is considered a semi-official newspaper, said in an opinion article that Baghdad's response to what it called "Gulf defiance led by Qatar" suggests that Iraq has "recovered" and realised its interests in restoring relations with Syria.

Syrian and Iraqi officials seem "positive" about the initiative. On December 17, after meeting with the Iraqi delegation, President Assad expressed his satisfaction and appreciation for its efforts, SANA reported. Some analysts even suggested that the Iraqi delegation managed to convince Syria to sign the AL protocol to accept Arab monitors in the country. Faleh Fayyad, counsellor for Iraq's National Security Council, told Iraqi National News Agency that "the first goal of the Iraqi initiative is supporting the AL's efforts, and especially its protocol, from which we will move towards the political solution."

Subsequently, while six oil-rich Gulf nations decided to withdraw their monitors, Iraqi representative Qais al-Azzawi said on January 24 that his country was ready to increase the number of observers and material support. He added that Iraq was participating with 33 observers, who are now on the ground, and that it had also donated 17 armoured vehicles to the mission.

Overspill fears
Whether its mediation is successful or not, it is not surprising that Iraq is so keen to support the Syrian regime in the face of the uprising.

The Ba'ath parties in Syria and Iraq, which hold different ideologies and ruled both countries since the 1960s, were traditional rivals, and the Iraq-Iran war during the 1980s only escalated those tensions. But in recent years, relations have warmed significantly. After a break of nearly a quarter of a century, Damascus and Baghdad finally restored diplomatic ties in 2006, though the countries only began to truly reconcile in 2010, after the formation of the new Iraqi government.

James Denselow, a Middle East geopolitical and security analyst, agrees that this recent thaw has encouraged Iraq to voice its support for Assad during the Syrian uprising. But in an article published on the Open Democracy website, he argued that there are other motives behind Iraq's keenness to see the Syrian regime remain in place.

Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, has not been immune from the Arab Spring himself, with Iraq seeing its own protests last year, and he may be anxious to see the neighbouring regime retain power to alleviate the pressure on his own government.

Syria is also vital to Iraq for strategic reasons, says Mazen Bilal, a political analyst and editor-in-chief of Souria Al-Ghad news website.

Having Syria as an ally, along with Iran, which supports Maliki, has been a "necessity" for the Iraqi government, he explained, in order to create a regional power that could challenge the Saudi-Gulf bloc which supports Maliki's strongest political rival, the Iraqiya List, an umbrella of parties headed by Iyad Allawi. Iraq also needs routes to export its oil that do not rely on the Gulf.

"There is either the Turkish or the Syrian solution [to the need for an oil trading partner]. Iraq has big problems [with Turkey], especially because of the Kurdistan region which is subject to tensions; therefore, Syria is the easiest and main outlet," he told Syria Today.

Bilal points out that Syria sees Iraq as equally crucial to its survival, foremost because of economic factors. "If its eastern borders are closed, Syria will be suffocated," he explained.

According to Syria's Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), Iraq accounted for 18.7 percent of Syria's exports in 2010 and is the biggest receiver of Syrian goods in the Arab world (Saudi Arabia came a distant second, with around 4.5 percent of exports).

But while strategic and economic considerations may play their part, security remains Iraq's biggest concern, particularly along the Syrian-Iraqi border, given fears of Islamist extremism.

Hussein al-Assadi, a senior security adviser to Maliki, told American daily the Wall Street Journal that the Syrian regime's collapse could revitalise militant Islamist groups along the border which have so far been contained by the two governments.

Many Iraqi cities witnessed small protests after the outbreak of the Egyptian revolution in January 2011. This momentum reached its peak on February 25; however, it subsequently diminished and continued only until early May.

Maliki's greatest fear, though, is that the Arab Spring will eventually come knocking again on his door.

"Shi'ite [Iraqi] leaders worry that Syria's turmoil will spill over the border, encouraging protests in the western Sunni provinces, especially if a hard-line Sunni replaces President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus," Reuters' Patrick Markey wrote.